Forecasting Model for Para Rubber’s Export Sales

Abstract

In this paper, monthly export values of para rubber are investigated using the Box-Jenkins method. To find the optimal predicting model, 12-year data, from January 2000 to December 2011, are used to analyze. Finally,the suitable mathematical model is seasonal ARIMA that use the analysis of time-series from the lowest level of the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The best model is seasonal ARIMA (1,1,1) 1,1,012 .

Keywords: Mathematical model, Box-Jenkins Method, Exporting of Para rubber

E-mail: kkkancha@kmitl.ac.th

How to Cite

Citation Format

Pattranurakyothin, T. ., & Kumnungkit*, K. . (2018). Forecasting Model for Para Rubber’s Export Sales. CURRENT APPLIED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 198-202.

References

[1] Brockwell, P.J. and Davis, R.A., 1996. Introduction to Time Serie and Forecasting, Springer, New York.
[2] Chatfield, C., 2004. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 6th Ed, Chapman & Hall, New York.
[3] Tsekouras, G.J., Dialynas, E.N., Hatziargyriou, N.D. and Kavatza, S., 2007. A non-linear multivariable regression model for midterm energy of power systems. Electric Power Systems Res., 77: 1560-1568.
[4] Ghiassi, M., Zimbra, D.K. and Saidane, H., 2006. Medium term system load forecasting with a dynamic artificial neural network model. Electric Power System Res., 76: 302-316.
[5] Mohamed, N., Ahmad, M. H., Suhartono and Ismail, Z., 2011. Improving Short Term Load Forecasting Using Double Seasonal Arima Model., Indonesia. World Applied Sciences Journal 15(2): 223-231, 2011.

Author Information

Tatiporn Pattranurakyothin

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand

Kanchana Kumnungkit*

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand

About this Article

Journal

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2012)

Type of Manuscript

Original Research Article

Keywords

Mathematical model, Box-Jenkins Method, Exporting of Para rubber

Published

30 March 2018

Forecasting Model for Para Rubber’s Export Sales

Abstract

How to Cite

References

Author Information

Tatiporn Pattranurakyothin

Kanchana Kumnungkit*

About this Article

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Type of Manuscript

Keywords

Published

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